Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 4762 DEN 07:55 → BIL 09:36 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 1417 DEN 19:40 → BIL 21:17 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4762 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:55	BIL 09:36	6%	2%	0.5%	87%
UA 5257 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 21:10	BIL 22:54	7%	2%	0.5%	80%
UA 703 United Flight history →	DEN 11:45	BIL 13:22	9%	3%	0.5%	80%
UA 5498 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 15:35	BIL 17:19	9%	4%	0.5%	77%
UA 1417 United Flight history →	DEN 19:40	BIL 21:17	14%	4%	0.5%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON