Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 1118 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 1118 DEN 06:04 → BNA 09:36 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3317 DEN 18:18 → BNA 21:52 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1118 Southwest	DEN 06:04	BNA 09:36	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 793 Southwest	DEN 09:07	BNA 12:27	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 355 United Flight history →	DEN 09:43	BNA 13:22	8%	2%	0.5%	83%
WN 1453 Southwest	DEN 11:51	BNA 15:19	12%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1454 Southwest	DEN 14:17	BNA 17:46	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 1402 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:32	BNA 14:20	13%	4%	0.7%	81%
UA 1109 United Flight history →	DEN 13:50	BNA 17:34	14%	3%	0.5%	72%
UA 1300 United Flight history →	DEN 17:30	BNA 21:13	14%	4%	0.5%	74%
WN 3459 Southwest	DEN 17:09	BNA 20:33	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3317 Southwest	DEN 18:18	BNA 21:52	15%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON