Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 255 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–15%.

Safest bet that day UA 255 DEN 07:45 → BOI 09:49 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 790 DEN 13:13 → BOI 15:01 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 255 United	DEN 07:45	BOI 09:49	4%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 114 Southwest	DEN 08:45	BOI 10:43	5%	1%	0.4%	no record
UA 5923 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:25	BOI 22:37	7%	2%	0.5%	71%
WN 113 Southwest	DEN 09:40	BOI 11:33	8%	1%	0.4%	no record
UA 2255 United Flight history →	DEN 11:35	BOI 13:34	8%	2%	0.4%	82%
UA 2014 United Flight history →	DEN 19:28	BOI 21:29	15%	3%	0.5%	73%
UA 2602 United Flight history →	DEN 15:55	BOI 17:56	15%	3%	0.5%	67%
WN 790 Southwest	DEN 13:13	BOI 15:01	15%	2%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON