Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2656 at 00:12 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 2656 DEN 00:12 → BOS 05:58 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 3652 DEN 18:47 → BOS 00:33 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2656 United Flight history →	DEN 00:12	BOS 05:58	5%	2%	0.5%	92%
UA 558 United Flight history →	DEN 07:45	BOS 13:49	6%	2%	0.5%	91%
UA 1232 United Flight history →	DEN 09:40	BOS 15:44	10%	2%	0.5%	86%
UA 597 United Flight history →	DEN 14:06	BOS 20:10	13%	5%	0.5%	71%
DL 499 Delta Flight history →	DEN 16:01	BOS 22:04	15%	4%	0.6%	75%
UA 1356 United Flight history →	DEN 17:40	BOS 23:44	15%	3%	0.5%	73%
UA 1912 United	DEN 15:38	BOS 21:41	15%	4%	0.5%	no record
B6 394 JetBlue Flight history →	DEN 14:45	BOS 20:43	18%	6%	0.6%	68%
WN 697 Southwest	DEN 13:28	BOS 19:27	19%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 3652 Southwest	DEN 18:47	BOS 00:33	20%	4%	0.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	DEN 13:53 → MDW 17:08WN 2613	58m Chicago	MDW 18:06 → BOS 21:27WN 4215	5h 34m	81%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON