Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 4179 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 4179 DEN 09:10 → BUR 10:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1226 DEN 20:16 → BUR 21:40 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4179 Southwest	DEN 09:10	BUR 10:40	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
UA 2154 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	BUR 12:48	9%	3%	0.6%	85%
WN 1465 Southwest	DEN 13:58	BUR 15:37	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2411 United Flight history →	DEN 19:28	BUR 20:58	15%	5%	0.6%	67%
WN 1226 Southwest	DEN 20:16	BUR 21:40	18%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON