Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 1105 at 06:44 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 1105 DEN 06:44 → BWI 12:13 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1469 DEN 14:56 → BWI 20:17 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1105 Southwest	DEN 06:44	BWI 12:13	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1111 Southwest	DEN 08:06	BWI 13:27	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3072 Southwest	DEN 09:24	BWI 14:53	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1362 United Flight history →	DEN 09:46	BWI 15:17	8%	2%	0.5%	89%
WN 4065 Southwest	DEN 12:29	BWI 17:58	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 839 Southwest	DEN 13:52	BWI 19:20	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 363 United	DEN 14:02	BWI 19:34	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1469 Southwest	DEN 14:56	BWI 20:17	14%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON