Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3873 DEN 08:59 → BZN 10:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4533 DEN 20:45 → BZN 22:26 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3873 Southwest	DEN 08:59	BZN 10:35	5%	1%	0.4%	no record
OO 4754 SkyWest	DEN 08:03	BZN 09:52	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 741 United Flight history →	DEN 11:59	BZN 13:49	8%	3%	0.4%	82%
UA 513 United Flight history →	DEN 13:44	BZN 15:33	9%	3%	0.5%	85%
WN 1575 Southwest	DEN 13:24	BZN 15:02	9%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 1219 Southwest	DEN 18:00	BZN 19:42	11%	3%	0.4%	no record
UA 1347 United Flight history →	DEN 19:25	BZN 21:14	11%	4%	0.5%	80%
WN 4533 Southwest	DEN 20:45	BZN 22:26	12%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON