Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 619 at 09:40 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 619 DEN 09:40 → CLE 14:36 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 4767 DEN 18:06 → CLE 22:59 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 619 United Flight history →	DEN 09:40	CLE 14:36	8%	2%	0.4%	97%
UA 2476 United Flight history →	DEN 13:55	CLE 18:53	12%	3%	0.4%	90%
UA 1790 United Flight history →	DEN 17:40	CLE 22:41	14%	4%	0.5%	75%
WN 4633 Southwest	DEN 11:46	CLE 16:35	16%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 4767 Southwest	DEN 18:06	CLE 22:59	24%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON