Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 573 at 06:41 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 573 DEN 06:41 → CLT 12:04 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 1283 DEN 15:26 → CLT 20:37 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 573 American Flight history →	DEN 06:41	CLT 12:04	5%	2%	0.6%	94%
UA 2231 United	DEN 09:49	CLT 15:03	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 3299 American Flight history →	DEN 10:51	CLT 16:07	13%	3%	0.6%	93%
UA 616 United Flight history →	DEN 17:45	CLT 23:08	14%	3%	0.5%	71%
AA 1283 American Flight history →	DEN 15:26	CLT 20:37	18%	4%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON