Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: OO 306 at 22:31 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–23%.

Safest bet that day OO 306 DEN 22:31 → COS 23:25 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4346 DEN 21:09 → COS 21:52 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 306 SkyWest	DEN 22:31	COS 23:25	8%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 5246 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:45	COS 08:41	8%	3%	0.5%	85%
UA 5306 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:45	COS 10:46	11%	3%	0.5%	83%
WN 4386 Southwest	DEN 09:01	COS 09:47	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 5308 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 16:55	COS 17:52	12%	5%	0.6%	66%
WN 1481 Southwest	DEN 09:06	COS 09:51	12%	2%	0.4%	no record
OO 5244 SkyWest	DEN 20:45	COS 21:43	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 5546 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 15:35	COS 16:32	14%	4%	0.6%	81%
UA 4775 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:30	COS 14:27	15%	5%	0.6%	73%
UA 738 United	DEN 11:29	COS 12:19	15%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 4793 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:05	COS 20:01	16%	5%	0.6%	74%
UA 5669 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:50	COS 20:46	16%	5%	0.6%	84%
UA 5861 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:55	COS 18:54	17%	5%	0.6%	68%
WN 781 Southwest	DEN 15:15	COS 16:00	22%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 4346 Southwest	DEN 21:09	COS 21:52	23%	4%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON