Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 5797 at 17:30, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 5797 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:30	COU 20:39	10%	3%	0.6%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbia is 1 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DEN 05:00 → DFW 08:05AA 2612	1h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:55 → COU 11:46AA 3416 · flown by Envoy	5h 46m	99%	91%
American Details →	DEN 12:10 → ORD 15:50AA 2363	3h 31m Chicago	ORD 19:21 → COU 20:48AA 3696 · flown by Envoy	7h 38m	97%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON