Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1978 DEN 09:40 → CVG 14:27 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 4067 DEN 13:55 → CVG 18:34 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1978 United Flight history →	DEN 09:40	CVG 14:27	8%	2%	0.5%	93%
UA 1615 United Flight history →	DEN 17:40	CVG 22:28	15%	5%	0.6%	76%
F9 3286 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 11:19	CVG 16:11	16%	3%	0.7%	82%
WN 4067 Southwest	DEN 13:55	CVG 18:34	18%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON