Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 11 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 11 DEN 06:04 → DAL 09:03 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1487 DEN 18:16 → DAL 21:13 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 11 Southwest	DEN 06:04	DAL 09:03	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2539 Southwest	DEN 08:07	DAL 11:01	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 493 Southwest	DEN 11:29	DAL 14:25	12%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2914 Southwest	DEN 12:52	DAL 15:47	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4071 Southwest	DEN 16:24	DAL 19:19	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1486 Southwest	DEN 20:00	DAL 22:54	16%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1487 Southwest	DEN 18:16	DAL 21:13	18%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON