tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 2635 at 18:05, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2635 United DEN 18:05 DAY 22:57 21% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dayton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dayton is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DEN 00:40 → ATL 05:42DL 302 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 09:00 → DAY 10:30DL 3108 7h 50m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 13:35 → DAY 15:04DL 2763 7h 19m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → DEN 14:10 → ATL 19:16DL 706 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 22:20 → DAY 23:51DL 3167 7h 41m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → DEN 06:41 → CLT 12:04AA 573 3h 59m Charlotte CLT 16:03 → DAY 17:28AA 5321 · flown by PSA 8h 47m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → DEN 10:51 → CLT 16:07AA 3299 3h 35m Charlotte CLT 19:42 → DAY 21:23AA 5435 · flown by PSA 8h 32m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → DEN 07:54 → DFW 11:02AA 852 3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:07 → DAY 17:32AA 5517 · flown by PSA 7h 38m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → DEN 10:38 → DFW 13:40AA 1756 3h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:16 → DAY 20:48AA 5609 · flown by PSA 8h 10m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → DEN 08:00 → IAD 13:26UA 1101 3h 49m Dulles IAD 17:15 → DAY 19:01UA 4274 · flown by CommuteAir 9h 01m 100% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DEN 13:25 → ORD 17:05UA 617 46m Chicago ORD 17:51 → DAY 20:22UA 4484 · flown by GoJet 4h 57m 69% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON