Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 789 DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 690 DEN 16:28 → DCA 21:59 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 789 United Flight history →	DEN 09:30	DCA 14:59	10%	3%	0.5%	91%
F9 688 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 11:25	DCA 16:59	15%	4%	0.6%	78%
F9 690 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:28	DCA 21:59	16%	5%	0.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON