Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 3285 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 3285 DEN 06:25 → DFW 09:33 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1832 DEN 16:40 → DFW 19:41 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3285 American Flight history →	DEN 06:25	DFW 09:33	4%	2%	0.6%	90%
AA 2612 American Flight history →	DEN 05:00	DFW 08:05	4%	2%	0.7%	90%
UA 2160 United Flight history →	DEN 07:32	DFW 10:39	6%	2%	0.5%	90%
AA 852 American Flight history →	DEN 07:54	DFW 11:02	8%	3%	0.6%	81%
UA 1350 United Flight history →	DEN 09:32	DFW 12:32	9%	3%	0.5%	85%
AA 1523 American Flight history →	DEN 09:04	DFW 12:07	10%	4%	0.6%	82%
UA 578 United Flight history →	DEN 13:45	DFW 16:51	13%	4%	0.5%	76%
UA 2239 United Flight history →	DEN 20:53	DFW 23:59	13%	3%	0.6%	69%
AA 1756 American Flight history →	DEN 10:38	DFW 13:40	13%	4%	0.6%	69%
UA 1565 United Flight history →	DEN 18:53	DFW 21:59	13%	5%	0.6%	69%
F9 3366 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 11:34	DFW 14:42	13%	5%	0.7%	78%
F9 2632 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 21:16	DFW 00:28	13%	5%	0.7%	68%
AA 2359 American Flight history →	DEN 12:39	DFW 15:47	14%	6%	0.6%	64%
F9 4464 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:08	DFW 19:20	14%	5%	0.7%	72%
UA 2230 United	DEN 15:37	DFW 18:40	15%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 420 American Flight history →	DEN 15:11	DFW 18:21	16%	6%	0.7%	69%
AA 1832 American Flight history →	DEN 16:40	DFW 19:41	20%	6%	0.7%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON