Today: UA 596 at 09:42 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–26%.

Safest bet today UA 596 DEN 09:42 → DSM 12:37 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest WN 161 DEN 18:17 → DSM 21:02 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 596 United Flight history →	DEN 09:42	DSM 12:37	6%	2%	0.2%	83%
OO 5361 SkyWest	DEN 07:55	DSM 10:50	8%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 3984 Southwest	DEN 11:40	DSM 14:30	10%	1%	0.2%	no record
UA 1311 United Flight history →	DEN 13:30	DSM 16:15	10%	4%	0.2%	89%
UA 1213 United	DEN 21:02	DSM 23:57	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 549 United Flight history →	DEN 18:04	DSM 20:59	16%	3%	0.5%	77%
WN 2664 Southwest	DEN 17:55	DSM 20:45	26%	4%	0.4%	no record
WN 161 Southwest	DEN 18:17	DSM 21:02	26%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON