Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1745 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 1745 DEN 06:05 → DTW 10:54 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 3670 DEN 18:16 → DTW 22:57 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1745 Delta Flight history →	DEN 06:05	DTW 10:54	4%	1%	0.5%	90%
DL 1113 Delta	DEN 10:56	DTW 15:56	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1915 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	DTW 14:27	8%	2%	0.5%	96%
F9 3566 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:25	DTW 15:21	8%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 1648 Delta Flight history →	DEN 14:59	DTW 19:49	10%	3%	0.5%	83%
UA 1220 United Flight history →	DEN 17:47	DTW 22:43	14%	3%	0.5%	70%
WN 3412 Southwest	DEN 13:44	DTW 18:25	18%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3670 Southwest	DEN 18:16	DTW 22:57	22%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON