tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 00:40, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Panama City Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Panama City Beach is 1 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DEN 00:40 → ATL 05:42DL 302 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 08:05 → ECP 08:12DL 3048 6h 32m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → DEN 10:52 → ATL 15:52DL 346 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 18:40 → ECP 18:50DL 2494 6h 58m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54DL 2823 7h 09m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → DEN 07:57 → ATL 12:59DL 995 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094 7h 15m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → DEN 15:10 → ATL 20:22DL 957 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131 7h 27m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → DEN 05:00 → IAH 08:32UA 320 3h 39m Houston IAH 12:11 → ECP 14:04UA 4969 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 04m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → DEN 12:39 → DFW 15:47AA 2359 3h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:59 → ECP 20:59AA 3628 · flown by Envoy 7h 20m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → DEN 05:00 → DFW 08:05AA 2612 1h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:31 → ECP 11:43AA 3625 · flown by Envoy 5h 43m 94% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DEN 05:00 → IAH 08:32UA 320 46m Houston IAH 09:18 → ECP 11:11UA 4225 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 11m 67% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON