Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2345 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 2345 DEN 06:00 → EWR 11:49 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 1505 DEN 13:41 → EWR 19:35 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2345 United Flight history →	DEN 06:00	EWR 11:49	5%	1%	0.6%	96%
UA 1745 United Flight history →	DEN 00:09	EWR 05:27	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 2640 United Flight history →	DEN 07:40	EWR 13:27	8%	2%	0.6%	90%
UA 2381 United Flight history →	DEN 09:58	EWR 16:00	12%	3%	0.6%	81%
UA 1233 United Flight history →	DEN 11:37	EWR 17:31	14%	3%	0.6%	77%
UA 2613 United Flight history →	DEN 17:50	EWR 23:44	14%	3%	0.6%	71%
UA 1283 United Flight history →	DEN 12:40	EWR 18:35	15%	4%	0.6%	71%
UA 1715 United Flight history →	DEN 15:35	EWR 21:29	19%	5%	0.6%	66%
UA 1505 United Flight history →	DEN 13:41	EWR 19:35	20%	4%	0.6%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON