Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5655 DEN 11:29 → FAT 13:14 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 756 DEN 19:27 → FAT 21:03 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5655 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 11:29	FAT 13:14	9%	3%	0.5%	92%
WN 976 Southwest	DEN 10:55	FAT 12:11	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 5978 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 15:25	FAT 17:00	11%	4%	0.5%	87%
UA 756 United Flight history →	DEN 19:27	FAT 21:03	16%	5%	0.6%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON