Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 13–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1214 DEN 09:50 → FLL 15:53 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1374 DEN 17:45 → FLL 23:49 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1214 United	DEN 09:50	FLL 15:53	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1384 United Flight history →	DEN 13:54	FLL 20:02	16%	6%	0.7%	67%
UA 1374 United Flight history →	DEN 17:45	FLL 23:49	16%	4%	0.7%	77%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DEN 16:35 → ATL 21:53DL 840	52m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229	6h 04m	85%	68%
Delta Details →	DEN 10:52 → ATL 15:52DL 346	47m Atlanta	ATL 16:39 → FLL 18:40DL 1295	5h 48m	83%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON