Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4856 DEN 09:09 → GEG 10:23 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 778 DEN 19:40 → GEG 21:05 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4856 Southwest	DEN 09:09	GEG 10:23	6%	1%	0.4%	no record
OO 4672 SkyWest	DEN 13:40	GEG 15:18	8%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 295 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	GEG 12:35	11%	3%	0.5%	83%
WN 3750 Southwest	DEN 21:12	GEG 22:34	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 778 United Flight history →	DEN 19:40	GEG 21:05	16%	4%	0.5%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON