Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 8–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 6041 DEN 07:53 → GJT 09:15 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 431 DEN 19:25 → GJT 20:34 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 6041 SkyWest	DEN 07:53	GJT 09:15	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1714 United Flight history →	DEN 11:24	GJT 12:31	8%	2%	0.5%	87%
UA 4704 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:35	GJT 10:44	8%	2%	0.5%	88%
UA 5488 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:25	GJT 14:40	9%	3%	0.6%	86%
OO 5491 SkyWest	DEN 20:59	GJT 22:15	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
OO 498 SkyWest	DEN 16:17	GJT 17:26	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 431 United Flight history →	DEN 19:25	GJT 20:34	14%	3%	0.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON