Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1924 at 00:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–16%.

Safest bet that day UA 1924 DEN 00:05 → IAD 05:29 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 2408 DEN 18:00 → IAD 23:32 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1924 United Flight history →	DEN 00:05	IAD 05:29	5%	2%	0.5%	94%
UA 1101 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	IAD 13:26	6%	2%	0.5%	94%
UA 2853 United Flight history →	DEN 12:26	IAD 17:58	11%	3%	0.5%	82%
UA 347 United Flight history →	DEN 16:01	IAD 21:35	11%	4%	0.5%	87%
UA 2087 United Flight history →	DEN 12:48	IAD 18:09	11%	3%	0.5%	81%
UA 421 United Flight history →	DEN 15:40	IAD 21:11	13%	4%	0.5%	71%
UA 2408 United Flight history →	DEN 18:00	IAD 23:32	16%	5%	0.5%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON