Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 320 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 320 DEN 05:00 → IAH 08:32 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 1055 DEN 18:04 → IAH 21:30 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 320 United Flight history →	DEN 05:00	IAH 08:32	3%	1%	0.6%	97%
UA 1720 United Flight history →	DEN 07:42	IAH 11:15	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
F9 3206 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 07:00	IAH 10:34	7%	3%	0.7%	87%
UA 2030 United	DEN 10:10	IAH 13:51	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1599 United Flight history →	DEN 11:34	IAH 15:09	11%	2%	0.6%	78%
UA 1829 United Flight history →	DEN 13:30	IAH 17:04	14%	3%	0.6%	73%
F9 2996 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 21:06	IAH 00:40	14%	4%	0.7%	76%
UA 2419 United Flight history →	DEN 20:28	IAH 23:59	15%	3%	0.6%	80%
UA 588 United Flight history →	DEN 16:20	IAH 19:57	15%	3%	0.6%	78%
UA 489 United Flight history →	DEN 15:35	IAH 19:10	16%	3%	0.6%	78%
UA 475 United Flight history →	DEN 19:35	IAH 23:06	16%	3%	0.6%	75%
UA 1587 United Flight history →	DEN 17:39	IAH 21:03	17%	3%	0.6%	82%
UA 1055 United	DEN 18:04	IAH 21:30	18%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON