Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Today: UA 5497 at 09:55 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–22%.

Safest bet today UA 5497 DEN 09:55 → ICT 12:27 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 1614 DEN 18:13 → ICT 20:40 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5497 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:55	ICT 12:27	7%	3%	0.5%	91%
UA 4755 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 21:05	ICT 23:40	8%	3%	0.5%	80%
UA 6020 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:45	ICT 10:16	8%	2%	0.2%	90%
UA 5454 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:59	ICT 16:34	10%	4%	0.5%	85%
UA 1788 United	DEN 17:41	ICT 20:15	14%	5%	0.4%	no record
WN 2151 Southwest	DEN 11:03	ICT 13:29	15%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4710 Southwest	DEN 11:46	ICT 14:15	16%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4745 Southwest	DEN 18:11	ICT 20:39	22%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 1614 Southwest	DEN 18:13	ICT 20:40	22%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON