Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 10–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 735 DEN 15:36 → IDA 17:15 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 391 DEN 19:06 → IDA 20:52 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 735 SkyWest	DEN 15:36	IDA 17:15	10%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 5374 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 08:05	IDA 09:50	10%	3%	0.5%	87%
UA 2383 United Flight history →	DEN 11:45	IDA 13:25	10%	4%	0.6%	72%
OO 4722 SkyWest	DEN 13:25	IDA 15:05	10%	4%	0.5%	no record
OO 391 SkyWest	DEN 19:06	IDA 20:52	13%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON