Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1522 at 09:58 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 1522 DEN 09:58 → IND 14:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest WN 4822 DEN 18:17 → IND 22:37 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1522 United Flight history →	DEN 09:58	IND 14:35	6%	2%	0.5%	87%
UA 1228 United	DEN 13:21	IND 17:51	11%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 1519 Southwest	DEN 11:26	IND 15:50	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 2346 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:36	IND 15:09	13%	4%	0.6%	78%
UA 1199 United Flight history →	DEN 17:53	IND 22:30	14%	3%	0.5%	76%
WN 1592 Southwest	DEN 14:04	IND 18:26	19%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4822 Southwest	DEN 18:17	IND 22:37	20%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON