Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 5730 at 07:59 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 5730 DEN 07:59 → JAC 09:43 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 785 DEN 19:10 → JAC 20:48 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5730 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:59	JAC 09:43	7%	3%	0.7%	94%
UA 2193 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	JAC 12:46	12%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 1537 United Flight history →	DEN 13:55	JAC 15:25	14%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 2200 United Flight history →	DEN 16:20	JAC 17:53	15%	5%	0.6%	73%
UA 785 United	DEN 19:10	JAC 20:48	18%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON