Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 17 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 784 DEN 09:13 → LAS 10:07 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 5041 DEN 16:38 → LAS 17:33 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 784 Southwest	DEN 09:13	LAS 10:07	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2316 United Flight history →	DEN 08:05	LAS 09:07	6%	2%	0.5%	94%
UA 1767 United Flight history →	DEN 09:27	LAS 10:31	7%	3%	0.5%	89%
UA 493 United Flight history →	DEN 13:31	LAS 14:45	7%	4%	0.5%	88%
F9 2349 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 07:22	LAS 08:30	8%	3%	0.7%	74%
UA 526 United Flight history →	DEN 11:22	LAS 12:24	8%	3%	0.5%	83%
F9 2801 Frontier	DEN 10:58	LAS 12:04	10%	5%	0.7%	no record
F9 777 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:29	LAS 23:29	10%	5%	0.8%	74%
UA 2424 United	DEN 15:54	LAS 16:57	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 4967 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 12:47	LAS 13:47	10%	5%	0.7%	72%
WN 1529 Southwest	DEN 21:13	LAS 22:01	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1527 Southwest	DEN 13:16	LAS 14:08	12%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1528 Southwest	DEN 20:02	LAS 20:53	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
F9 1765 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 18:27	LAS 19:36	12%	6%	0.7%	77%
UA 655 United Flight history →	DEN 19:05	LAS 20:08	13%	3%	0.5%	70%
WN 1525 Southwest	DEN 15:48	LAS 16:40	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 5041 Southwest	DEN 16:38	LAS 17:33	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON