Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1045 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 1045 DEN 06:06 → LAX 07:36 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 727 DEN 17:44 → LAX 19:05 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1045 Southwest	DEN 06:06	LAX 07:36	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
UA 1638 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	LAX 09:32	7%	2%	0.6%	93%
UA 405 United Flight history →	DEN 10:02	LAX 11:34	7%	2%	0.5%	91%
DL 2002 Delta Flight history →	DEN 07:31	LAX 09:00	8%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2148 Delta Flight history →	DEN 12:29	LAX 13:56	9%	3%	0.6%	78%
UA 1013 United Flight history →	DEN 11:45	LAX 13:17	9%	3%	0.5%	87%
AA 6376 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 11:38	LAX 13:17	9%	3%	0.5%	93%
UA 774 United Flight history →	DEN 13:26	LAX 14:57	9%	3%	0.5%	91%
F9 2341 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 13:08	LAX 14:45	10%	3%	0.7%	90%
OO 6451 SkyWest	DEN 12:03	LAX 13:35	10%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 1195 United Flight history →	DEN 15:43	LAX 17:15	10%	4%	0.5%	83%
WN 1645 Southwest	DEN 08:51	LAX 10:19	10%	1%	0.6%	no record
F9 4339 Frontier	DEN 22:37	LAX 00:24	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 6284 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:05	LAX 08:38	13%	3%	0.3%	94%
WN 1532 Southwest	DEN 09:04	LAX 10:24	13%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1753 United	DEN 17:33	LAX 19:05	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 4948 SkyWest	DEN 19:11	LAX 20:44	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1460 United	DEN 19:44	LAX 21:12	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 2176 Delta Flight history →	DEN 19:57	LAX 21:30	15%	3%	0.7%	67%
WN 3068 Southwest	DEN 14:13	LAX 15:46	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1949 Southwest	DEN 14:07	LAX 15:36	19%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1506 Southwest	DEN 15:53	LAX 17:19	22%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2106 Southwest	DEN 17:25	LAX 18:55	24%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3460 Southwest	DEN 20:57	LAX 22:19	26%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 727 Southwest	DEN 17:44	LAX 19:05	28%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON