Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 1288 at 06:14 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1288 DEN 06:14 → LGA 11:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4147 DEN 14:36 → LGA 20:11 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1288 Southwest	DEN 06:14	LGA 11:56	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 398 Delta Flight history →	DEN 07:10	LGA 12:52	7%	2%	0.6%	87%
UA 1442 United Flight history →	DEN 08:03	LGA 13:57	8%	2%	0.5%	89%
UA 2446 United Flight history →	DEN 09:49	LGA 15:46	11%	2%	0.5%	83%
WN 4863 Southwest	DEN 08:47	LGA 14:25	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 751 Delta Flight history →	DEN 11:00	LGA 16:47	13%	3%	0.6%	80%
UA 2168 United Flight history →	DEN 16:00	LGA 21:54	14%	4%	0.6%	67%
DL 716 Delta Flight history →	DEN 17:20	LGA 23:13	14%	3%	0.7%	70%
UA 2033 United Flight history →	DEN 17:35	LGA 23:30	15%	3%	0.6%	60%
UA 1579 United Flight history →	DEN 13:59	LGA 19:53	15%	3%	0.6%	71%
UA 598 United Flight history →	DEN 11:30	LGA 17:24	16%	3%	0.6%	72%
WN 203 Southwest	DEN 11:45	LGA 17:25	24%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1539 Southwest	DEN 16:57	LGA 22:33	26%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4147 Southwest	DEN 14:36	LGA 20:11	26%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON