Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 5369 at 09:35 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 5369 DEN 09:35 → LIT 12:54 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 1470 DEN 17:50 → LIT 21:03 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5369 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:35	LIT 12:54	10%	4%	0.5%	89%
UA 5760 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:20	LIT 16:42	11%	4%	0.5%	88%
WN 3866 Southwest	DEN 11:20	LIT 14:11	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1470 United	DEN 17:50	LIT 21:03	22%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON