Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5333 DEN 10:05 → MAF 12:59 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest OO 394 DEN 13:41 → MAF 16:32 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5333 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 10:05	MAF 12:59	11%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 4732 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:07	MAF 22:11	12%	3%	0.6%	78%
OO 394 SkyWest	DEN 13:41	MAF 16:32	13%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON