Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1713 at 07:04 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 1713 DEN 07:04 → MCI 09:43 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 358 DEN 18:55 → MCI 21:30 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1713 Southwest	DEN 07:04	MCI 09:43	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 778 Southwest	DEN 08:37	MCI 11:12	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
OO 4756 SkyWest	DEN 08:03	MCI 10:44	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2159 United Flight history →	DEN 09:50	MCI 12:38	8%	2%	0.5%	88%
UA 586 United Flight history →	DEN 13:40	MCI 16:22	10%	3%	0.5%	88%
WN 1547 Southwest	DEN 11:32	MCI 14:09	12%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1596 United Flight history →	DEN 20:40	MCI 23:25	14%	3%	0.5%	67%
WN 523 Southwest	DEN 14:52	MCI 17:28	15%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2793 United Flight history →	DEN 17:55	MCI 20:43	16%	4%	0.5%	56%
F9 3376 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:50	MCI 19:46	18%	4%	0.6%	83%
WN 4658 Southwest	DEN 20:25	MCI 23:01	18%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 358 Southwest	DEN 18:55	MCI 21:30	19%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON