Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1564 at 06:34 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16%.

Safest bet that day WN 1564 DEN 06:34 → MDW 09:58 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1110 DEN 16:32 → MDW 19:44 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1564 Southwest	DEN 06:34	MDW 09:58	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 8501 Southwest	DEN 06:54	MDW 09:58	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1560 Southwest	DEN 08:21	MDW 11:35	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2613 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 13:53	MDW 17:08	13%	2%	0.6%	94%
WN 1428 Southwest	DEN 11:09	MDW 14:22	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1563 Southwest	DEN 19:28	MDW 22:44	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1110 Southwest	DEN 16:32	MDW 19:44	16%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON