Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2789 at 10:41 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 2789 DEN 10:41 → MEM 14:07 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3615 DEN 18:05 → MEM 21:18 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2789 United	DEN 10:41	MEM 14:07	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2130 United Flight history →	DEN 17:30	MEM 20:56	15%	4%	0.5%	75%
WN 4662 Southwest	DEN 11:23	MEM 14:35	16%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 3615 Southwest	DEN 18:05	MEM 21:18	23%	4%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON