Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 1292 at 00:16 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 1292 DEN 00:16 → MIA 06:01 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1310 DEN 13:05 → MIA 19:15 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1292 American	DEN 00:16	MIA 06:01	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 1418 United Flight history →	DEN 09:45	MIA 15:42	14%	3%	0.7%	76%
F9 1280 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 18:54	MIA 01:02	22%	9%	1.2%	77%
UA 445 United	DEN 15:53	MIA 22:06	24%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 1310 American	DEN 13:05	MIA 19:15	28%	10%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON