Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1836 DEN 09:57 → MKE 13:25 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest WN 4701 DEN 18:30 → MKE 21:38 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1836 United Flight history →	DEN 09:57	MKE 13:25	11%	2%	0.5%	87%
WN 4730 Southwest	DEN 11:29	MKE 14:41	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
OO 4718 SkyWest	DEN 13:34	MKE 16:56	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 560 SkyWest	DEN 17:33	MKE 21:04	16%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 4804 Southwest	DEN 15:35	MKE 18:37	19%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4701 Southwest	DEN 18:30	MKE 21:38	19%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON