Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2357 at 11:23 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 2357 DEN 11:23 → MSO 13:33 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest UA 1092 DEN 19:30 → MSO 21:39 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2357 United Flight history →	DEN 11:23	MSO 13:33	9%	4%	0.5%	84%
OO 5535 SkyWest	DEN 14:11	MSO 16:44	9%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 1092 United Flight history →	DEN 19:30	MSO 21:39	20%	6%	0.5%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON