Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 1129 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 1129 DEN 06:00 → MSP 09:00 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 1577 DEN 18:15 → MSP 21:03 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1129 Delta Flight history →	DEN 06:00	MSP 09:00	3%	1%	0.5%	91%
DL 2877 Delta Flight history →	DEN 08:44	MSP 11:40	6%	2%	0.5%	85%
UA 773 United Flight history →	DEN 07:40	MSP 10:38	6%	2%	0.5%	91%
UA 397 United Flight history →	DEN 09:40	MSP 12:40	9%	2%	0.5%	87%
WN 1437 Southwest	DEN 09:56	MSP 12:43	10%	1%	0.4%	no record
F9 1292 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 21:11	MSP 00:21	10%	5%	0.6%	65%
UA 732 United Flight history →	DEN 13:42	MSP 16:46	12%	3%	0.5%	84%
DL 2849 Delta Flight history →	DEN 11:08	MSP 14:08	12%	2%	0.5%	75%
F9 1150 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:44	MSP 13:57	12%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 667 United Flight history →	DEN 20:54	MSP 23:59	13%	3%	0.5%	59%
DL 2271 Delta Flight history →	DEN 16:08	MSP 19:15	14%	3%	0.6%	72%
WN 142 Southwest	DEN 13:53	MSP 16:43	14%	2%	0.4%	no record
DL 1220 Delta Flight history →	DEN 18:32	MSP 21:34	14%	3%	0.6%	72%
UA 2470 United Flight history →	DEN 15:42	MSP 18:46	15%	3%	0.5%	76%
UA 2076 United Flight history →	DEN 18:05	MSP 21:10	15%	5%	0.5%	76%
WN 158 Southwest	DEN 11:20	MSP 14:09	15%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 1576 Southwest	DEN 15:19	MSP 18:07	18%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 1577 Southwest	DEN 18:15	MSP 21:03	19%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON