Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2273 at 09:50 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 2273 DEN 09:50 → MSY 13:39 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 443 DEN 18:04 → MSY 21:33 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2273 United Flight history →	DEN 09:50	MSY 13:39	6%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 250 United Flight history →	DEN 13:13	MSY 16:58	8%	3%	0.6%	90%
WN 4629 Southwest	DEN 11:21	MSY 14:57	11%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1541 United Flight history →	DEN 17:45	MSY 21:34	14%	4%	0.6%	77%
WN 443 Southwest	DEN 18:04	MSY 21:33	22%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON