Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 6029 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 6029 DEN 08:00 → OKC 10:49 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 4731 DEN 18:02 → OKC 20:37 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 6029 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 08:00	OKC 10:49	7%	3%	0.5%	97%
UA 5324 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 10:05	OKC 13:01	7%	4%	0.5%	90%
WN 167 Southwest	DEN 11:14	OKC 13:52	10%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 4727 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:44	OKC 23:26	10%	4%	0.5%	76%
UA 1656 United	DEN 13:23	OKC 16:07	13%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 1184 United Flight history →	DEN 17:31	OKC 20:11	15%	5%	0.5%	70%
F9 1928 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 15:54	OKC 18:31	15%	6%	0.7%	83%
WN 484 Southwest	DEN 15:47	OKC 18:18	16%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 4731 Southwest	DEN 18:02	OKC 20:37	18%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON