Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 7–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 510 DEN 07:54 → OMA 10:31 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1436 DEN 18:05 → OMA 20:42 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 510 SkyWest	DEN 07:54	OMA 10:31	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1633 United	DEN 10:08	OMA 12:53	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 4824 Southwest	DEN 11:48	OMA 14:16	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 2327 United Flight history →	DEN 13:50	OMA 16:24	13%	3%	0.5%	84%
WN 3824 Southwest	DEN 14:42	OMA 17:06	15%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 1787 United Flight history →	DEN 21:05	OMA 23:42	15%	4%	0.5%	68%
WN 4962 Southwest	DEN 18:48	OMA 21:16	17%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1436 United Flight history →	DEN 18:05	OMA 20:42	17%	5%	0.5%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON