Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 4794 at 09:23 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 4794 DEN 09:23 → ONT 10:45 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 141 DEN 20:54 → ONT 22:16 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4794 Southwest	DEN 09:23	ONT 10:45	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 430 United Flight history →	DEN 11:25	ONT 12:47	9%	3%	0.5%	88%
F9 2907 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 08:45	ONT 10:04	11%	3%	0.6%	91%
WN 1596 Southwest	DEN 13:05	ONT 14:30	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
F9 1261 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:29	ONT 23:50	14%	4%	0.6%	81%
UA 2028 United Flight history →	DEN 19:20	ONT 20:42	19%	4%	0.6%	75%
WN 141 Southwest	DEN 20:54	ONT 22:16	21%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON