Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1377 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 1377 DEN 06:00 → ORD 09:42 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1317 DEN 17:46 → ORD 21:18 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1377 United Flight history →	DEN 06:00	ORD 09:42	4%	1%	0.5%	89%
UA 1928 United Flight history →	DEN 07:40	ORD 11:11	6%	2%	0.5%	92%
AA 2771 American Flight history →	DEN 07:16	ORD 11:00	7%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 2430 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	ORD 11:43	7%	2%	0.5%	88%
AA 1229 American	DEN 08:11	ORD 11:38	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2329 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	ORD 13:15	10%	3%	0.5%	84%
AA 2559 American Flight history →	DEN 10:41	ORD 14:17	13%	4%	0.6%	83%
MQ 3964 Envoy	DEN 09:33	ORD 12:56	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2865 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	ORD 14:55	13%	3%	0.5%	82%
UA 377 United Flight history →	DEN 20:23	ORD 23:53	14%	3%	0.5%	80%
UA 2258 United Flight history →	DEN 19:10	ORD 22:49	16%	4%	0.5%	71%
AA 2363 American Flight history →	DEN 12:22	ORD 15:45	16%	4%	0.6%	78%
UA 617 United Flight history →	DEN 13:25	ORD 17:05	19%	5%	0.5%	68%
UA 1131 United Flight history →	DEN 16:29	ORD 20:01	20%	5%	0.5%	71%
F9 3174 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 20:55	ORD 00:40	20%	6%	0.7%	68%
UA 675 United Flight history →	DEN 16:29	ORD 20:14	20%	5%	0.5%	58%
UA 1023 United Flight history →	DEN 15:01	ORD 18:46	20%	5%	0.5%	61%
AA 1277 American	DEN 14:45	ORD 18:11	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1411 United Flight history →	DEN 18:00	ORD 21:39	22%	4%	0.5%	50%
UA 2272 United	DEN 18:09	ORD 21:33	22%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 1317 American	DEN 17:46	ORD 21:18	22%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON