Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 680 United Flight history →	DEN 17:58	ORF 23:33	15%	4%	0.5%	71%
WN 3078 Southwest	DEN 15:08	ORF 20:34	15%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 00:40 → ATL 05:42DL 302	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 07:31 → ORF 09:09DL 1336	6h 29m	99%	92%
American Details →	DEN 07:16 → ORD 11:00AA 2771	3h 33m Chicago	ORD 14:33 → ORF 17:56AA 4434 · flown by Republic	8h 40m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 14:10 → ORF 15:50DL 1101	8h 05m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	DEN 14:10 → ATL 19:16DL 706	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → ORF 00:34 +1DL 2338	8h 24m	99%	89%
United Details →	DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347	3h 13m Dulles	IAD 22:35 → ORF 23:44UA 2677	7h 51m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	DEN 07:57 → ATL 12:58DL 995	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 15:27 → ORF 17:12DL 2329	7h 15m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	DEN 06:35 → JFK 12:27DL 336	2h 35m New York	JFK 15:02 → ORF 16:26DL 5395 · flown by Endeavor	7h 51m	99%	87%
United Details →	DEN 06:00 → ORD 09:42UA 1377	2h 31m Chicago	ORD 12:13 → ORF 15:36UA 2807	7h 36m	99%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON