Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1247 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 1247 DEN 08:05 → PDX 09:47 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 1615 DEN 20:44 → PDX 22:22 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1247 United Flight history →	DEN 08:05	PDX 09:47	5%	2%	0.6%	88%
WN 1601 Southwest	DEN 09:12	PDX 10:48	6%	1%	0.4%	no record
UA 2455 United Flight history →	DEN 13:27	PDX 15:13	7%	3%	0.5%	90%
UA 644 United Flight history →	DEN 11:27	PDX 13:09	8%	3%	0.5%	84%
AS 684 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 12:02	PDX 13:46	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 1337 United Flight history →	DEN 16:00	PDX 17:44	9%	3%	0.5%	84%
WN 874 Southwest	DEN 13:26	PDX 15:00	12%	2%	0.5%	no record
AS 465 Alaska	DEN 08:20	PDX 09:37	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 498 United Flight history →	DEN 19:30	PDX 21:15	13%	3%	0.6%	80%
WN 1161 Southwest	DEN 16:07	PDX 17:48	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1615 Southwest	DEN 20:44	PDX 22:22	20%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON