Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 516 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–16%.

Safest bet that day AA 516 DEN 06:55 → PHL 12:38 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 1624 DEN 18:13 → PHL 23:50 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 516 American Flight history →	DEN 06:55	PHL 12:38	5%	2%	0.6%	91%
UA 1575 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	PHL 15:12	8%	2%	0.5%	88%
AA 811 American	DEN 10:54	PHL 16:42	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2787 United	DEN 13:38	PHL 19:25	13%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 1510 United Flight history →	DEN 17:54	PHL 23:30	14%	4%	0.5%	58%
WN 1622 Southwest	DEN 11:08	PHL 16:44	16%	2%	0.4%	no record
AA 2491 American Flight history →	DEN 12:58	PHL 18:37	16%	4%	0.6%	73%
WN 4971 Southwest	DEN 15:01	PHL 20:37	16%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 1624 Southwest	DEN 18:13	PHL 23:50	16%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON